America’s oil industry is facing immense pressure during Trump 2.0. Even though President Donald Trump vowed to usher in a period of American energy dominance, the administration’s trade war and OPEC’s production hikes have cast a shadow over the oil patch.
In fact, once-gangbusters US oil production growth is now at risk of grinding to a halt — or even going in reverse. Hurt by weakening demand and depressed prices, US oil output is now expected to shrink in 2026, S&P Global Commodity Insights projected on Monday. S&P estimates that US oil production will dip to 13.3 million barrels per day in 2026, a 130,000-barrel decline from its 2025 forecast.
It would be just the second time in the past decade that US production fell. The only other time was during the Covid-19 crash, when the world economy ground to a halt and oil prices briefly dropped below zero. “The US shale oil sector is quite gloomy. They’re battening down the hatches for a storm,” said Bob McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy Group.
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