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Bloomberg News – JAKARTA, Indonesia — Tin exports from Indonesia, the world’s biggest supplier, will probably plunge this quarter to the lowest in more than a year after prices declined and as the government moves to impose stricter rules on exports.
Overseas sales may drop 30 percent to 16,000 metric tons from 22,825 tons a year earlier, the median of estimates from one analyst and six smelters compiled by Bloomberg showed. That’s the largest decline since the three months to March and the smallest amount since the quarter ended Sept. 30 last year, Trade Ministry data show.
Tin futures have slumped 16 percent from a six-month high in April on concern that slowing economic growth may curb demand in China, the biggest consumer of industrial metals. Prices dropped even as exports from Indonesia declined 16 percent through September from a year earlier. The government tightened rules on trade in August last year to boost exports of higher- value products and smelters have restrained sales in an attempt to counter declining prices.
“Shipments may slow this quarter as prices have dropped to near the cost of production,” said Jabin Sufianto, chairman of the Association of Indonesian Tin Exporters in Jakarta. “Prices of about $21,000 are unattractive to some smelters,” he said in a text message on Oct. 9.
Futures fell 9.8 percent this year to $20,150 a ton on the London Metal Exchange Monday. They reached $23,849 on April 24 after the country required all refined tin to be traded through the Indonesia Commodity and Derivatives Exchange starting August last year, seeking to create a benchmark price and challenge the role of the LME.
Indonesia will impose new standards for packaging, labeling, size and shape of tin exports to improve controls over shipments starting Nov. 1.
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