http://africanbusinessmagazine.com/main-articles/new-african
According to the authors of a new book, The Fastest Billion – the story behind Africa’ s Economic Revolution, Africa’ s current sustained growth level is set to not only continue but rise over the next four decades so that, come 2050, the continent’ s GDP will equal the combined GDPs of the US and the EU at current prices. There is a possibility that Africa’ s growth could outstrip that of Asia over this time span. Some have described this scenario as over-optimistic and an exercise in wishful thinking. But the authors of the book put forward sound arguments based on analyses of trends going back centuries to support their thesis. Editor Anver Versi talked to the book’ s lead author, economist Charles Robertson, to outline the case for a defence of the theory.
The one thing most economists and historians are agreed upon is that we have not yet discovered a magic formula that allows us to explain why civilizations rise and fall when they do. The best we can do is in retrospect and assign this or that cause to the rise of this power and the decline of that power but what triggers the change that turns a humdrum nation into a mighty empire, or what series of events bring about the collapse of a mighty power continues to baffle us. There are so many ifs and buts, so many accidental turns, so much good fortune or bad fortune involved in the destiny of nations that crystal ball gazing by crunching numbers has shown up many prophets of the future to be little more than educated idiots.
Take this passage quoted by Dr Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and the former MD of the World Bank, in a foreword to The Fastest Billion: “Imagine a continent torn by multiple wars, beset by ethnic and religious warfare, malnutrition, disease and illiteracy – all of it complicated by poorly drawn borders, a still potent post-colonial stigma and the incessant meddling of outside powers.
