http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business
The heavy geopolitical overtones to the flash point on the Crimean peninsula in Ukraine has global commodity markets working overtime on the consequences the crisis could serve up to global energy, minerals and agriculture trade flows.
The initial assessment of the escalating tension by commodity markets was that most (price) concern would be shown in oil and gas markets because of Russia’s dominant supply position to Europe, and Ukraine’s strategically important status as a major thoroughfare for the delivery of that energy.
But the resultant spike in prices did not last, with the prospect of a gas revenue-dependent Russia turning off the gas – or its gas being turned back under some yet to eventuate embargo by western Europe, considered a remote possibility. The threat of disruption nevertheless remains in what Deutsche Bank’s commodities desk described as a “new event risk for commodity markets”.
Europe relies on Russia for 30 per cent of its gas supply, of which 50 per cent has to make its way across Ukraine. The reliance is down from the 80 per cent level before the recent start-up of a new pipeline beneath the Baltic Sea, but remains sufficiently high for the potential for a loss of supply to be a cause of major concern in western Europe, most notably Germany.