The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
(Reuters) – When Indonesia banned the export of unprocessed minerals in January of this year, the consensus view was that the most significant impact would be on the nickel and aluminium raw material markets in that order.
Copper barely warranted a mention.
Analysts at Macquarie Bank, for example, issued a research note on January 14, two days after the ban came into effect, examining the implications in a question-and-answer format. The only reference to copper came in the 19th bullet point under the telling heading: “Have copper producers been let entirely off the hook?”
Six months on, though, and one of the country’s two giant copper mines is on care and maintenance and the other has cut production by half. There have been no concentrate exports since January.
Not only is this the single biggest hit to copper mine supply this year but it is acting to accelerate a fracturing of the copper concentrates pricing model.
Both Freeport McMoRan, which owns and operates the Grasberg mine, and Newmont Mining, major stakeholder in and operator of the Batu Hijau mine, appear to have been blind-sided by the January rule changes.