The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War? – by Graham Allison (The Atlantic – September 24, 2015)

http://www.theatlantic.com/

In 12 of 16 past cases in which a rising power has confronted a ruling power, the result has been bloodshed.

When Barack Obama meets this week with Xi Jinping during the Chinese president’s first state visit to America, one item probably won’t be on their agenda: the possibility that the United States and China could find themselves at war in the next decade. In policy circles, this appears as unlikely as it would be unwise.

And yet 100 years on, World War I offers a sobering reminder of man’s capacity for folly. When we say that war is “inconceivable,” is this a statement about what is possible in the world—or only about what our limited minds can conceive? In 1914, few could imagine slaughter on a scale that demanded a new category: world war.

When war ended four years later, Europe lay in ruins: the kaiser gone, the Austro-Hungarian Empire dissolved, the Russian tsar overthrown by the Bolsheviks, France bled for a generation, and England shorn of its youth and treasure. A millennium in which Europe had been the political center of the world came to a crashing halt.

The defining question about global order for this generation is whether China and the United States can escape Thucydides’s Trap.

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Glencore’s Wild Ride Has Investors Asking: Can It Happen Again? – by Matthew Campbell, Dinesh Nair and Jesse Riseborough (Bloomberg News – October 2, 2015)

http://www.bloomberg.com/

From London to New York to Hong Kong, the frantic question kept coming: could this be another Lehman?

But nowhere did it cause more alarm than inside Glencore Plc — the Swiss commodities giant that had suddenly found itself at the epicenter of a global panic on Monday.

What began that morning in London, with a sudden plunge in Glencore’s share price, cascaded across oceans and time zones and left the company’s billionaire chief executive, Ivan Glasenberg, scrambling to calm anxious shareholders, creditors and trading partners.

Days later, even as Glencore regained most of the $6 billion of shareholder wealth erased in a few hours, many investors wondered if Glasenberg can hold the markets at bay.

Few market players, including people close to Glencore, are able to pinpoint why a blue-chip member of the FTSE-100 Index — even one that had been under pressure from sliding commodities prices — lost almost a third of its value in a blink. And that, investors worry, suggests this could all happen again.

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Uganda: Mineral Conference to Focus On Value Addition – by Justus Lyatuu (All Africa.com – September 30, 2015)

http://allafrica.com/

Officials of mining firms, both local and international, will converge in Kampala for the fourth Mineral Wealth Conference on October 1 and 2, looking for opportunities in an industry that is sometimes touted to be bigger than the oil and gas sector.

Richard Kaijuka, the vice chairman of the Uganda Chamber of Mines and Petroleum (UCMP), the body organising the conference, said the annual MWC was fast becoming East Africa’s flagship mining convention as it played a significant role in highlighting the huge untapped potential of Uganda’s, and the region’s, fledgling mining industries.

“Uganda enjoys a wealth of minerals ranging from gold, copper, iron ore, vermiculite, tin, tantalite, tungsten, nickel, platinum and phosphate; however, fully exploiting these minerals remains a work in progress as extensive exploration has not been done. So under such conferences we need to engage different stakeholders and the private sector,” he said.

Uganda is also said to hold deposits of rare earth elements, whose value alone is said to be bigger than Uganda’s entire oil industry.

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The blood diamond trade is tearing the Central African Republic apart – by Jake Flanagin (Quartz Africa – September 30, 2015)

http://qz.com/

The Central African Republic (CAR)—one of the poorest countries in the world—has been embroiled in intense religious conflict since Dec. 2012. Fighting between the predominantly Muslim rebels (known as the Séléka) and Christian/animist anti-balaka militia broke out when the former accused Christian president François Bozizé of violating peace agreements laid down in 2007 and 2011.

The Séléka supplanted Bozizé with their own president, Michel Djotodia, from Mar. 2013 to Jan. 2014; though he has since been replaced by two acting presidents—currently, former mayor of Bangui, Catherine Samba-Panza.

Conflict has continued into 2015, marred by reports of massacres committed by the anti-balakas against Muslims (which constitute roughly 15% of the national population).

In the midst of one of the bloodiest conflicts the region has seen in recent years, with the death toll of more than 5,000, according to Amnesty International, Western companies have quietly carried out business as usual. Such is the hypnotic draw of Central Africa’s diamond industry.

Prior to the Séléka’s gaining the presidency, diamonds represented about half of the CAR’s total exports, and 20% of its budget receipts.

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Glencore Slides as Recovery Fades After Three-Day Roller Coaster – by Thomas Biesheuvel and Jesse Riseborough (Bloomberg News – October 1,2015)

http://www.bloomberg.com/

Glencore Plc’s rebound ran out of puff after a two and a half day ascent that briefly recouped the $6 billion in market value it lost Monday.

The shares slid 3.1 percent to 88.72 pence by 2 p.m. in London after earlier gaining as much as 8.2 percent. Trading was halted for five minutes because of increased volatility.

Investors in the stock could probably do with the breather. Glencore has endured a roller-coaster week with unprecedented volatility for a company that went public in 2011 at 530 pence a share.

The mining and trading firm sank 29 percent on Monday to 68.62 pence on concern over its debt load and ability to withstand sinking commodity prices. It spent most of the rest of the week recovering those losses as investors spied a bargain.

Glencore sought to reassure investors on Tuesday, saying it had “absolutely no solvency issues” and its funding was secure. It also aimed to raise more than $1 billion selling future gold and silver output, according to two people familiar with the situation.

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Glencore tells investors debt is being cut, trading robust – by DMITRY ZHDANNIKOV, SARAH MCFARLANE AND OLIVIA KUMWENDA-MTAMBO (Reuters U.S. – October 1, 2015)

http://www.reuters.com/

LONDON – Glencore has told investors it is on track to cut debt and has shown new data about its secretive trading unit in a fresh attempt to dispel market worries over its finances which have knocked 70 percent off its share price this year.

Its stock gained as much as 6 percent on Thursday after credit analysts from Barclays said a meeting they had organized with members of Glencore’s management on Wednesday, including the co-head of corporate finance Carlos Perezagua and the head of strategy Paul Smith, managed to address many concerns of investors and bondholders.

But it then tumbled back into negative territory, extending the week’s losses after suffering a 30 percent plunge on Monday. At 1238 GMT it traded down 3.76 percent on the day.

“It was an encouraging meeting (on Wednesday) as we believe it helped to clear up many misconceptions and confusion we believe is currently in the market around commodity trading,” credit analysts from Barclays said in a note on Thursday.

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Coal threatens Poland’s image as European role-model – by Marcin Goettig (Reuters U.S. – October 1, 2015)

http://www.reuters.com/

WARSAW, Oct 1 (Reuters) – Coal mining has taken centre stage in the campaign for this month’s parliamentary election in Poland, an outsize political role that threatens the country’s hard-won economic growth and reputation in Europe.

Once a pillar of the communist-era economy, coal mines escaped the “shock therapy” that helped turn Poland into one of the European Union’s most resilient economies and a role-model for the rest of the bloc in investors’ eyes.

Successive governments have shrunk the sector, but kept it in state hands, conscious of public support for the miners, whose predecessors lost lives opposing martial law in 1981 and helped overthrow communism.

The mines have lost more than $850 million since the start of 2014 as coal prices slipped to decade lows, and efforts to prop them up have brought Poland into conflict with the European Union on both competition and environmental grounds.

The bloc wants to cut carbon dioxide emissions by at least 80 percent by 2050, and the highly polluting Polish hard coal sector will come under further scrutiny with the approach of talks on a global climate deal in late November.

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Vale Gain Spells Iron Pain With Giant Mine Ahead of Schedule – by Danielle Bochove and Juan Pablo Spinetto (Bloomberg News – October 1, 2015)

http://www.bloomberg.com/

The world’s top iron-ore producer has some bad news for the oversupplied market: its biggest project is running ahead of schedule.

S11D, part of the Carajas mining complex in northern Brazil, is on track to beat a targeted December 2016 start date, Vale SA Chief Financial Officer Luciano Siani said in an interview Wednesday.

The project — the industry’s largest and, according to Vale, the most profitable — will add 90 million metric tons of annual capacity to global supply, although Vale intends to control the speed at which it hits the market, Siani, 45, said in Toronto, where he is holding meetings with investors and analysts.

“We will manage the ramp up in order to preserve the premium for this high grade ore,” he said.
While S11D coming on stream sooner than planned would be a boon for Vale’s debt-reduction ambitions, it looms as another strain on an iron-ore market buffeted by a series of expansions by Vale and its main rivals in Australia at a time of slowing Chinese growth.

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Silver-coin shortage shows bright side of precious metal collapse – by Marcy Nicholson, A. Ananthalakshmi and Jan Harvey (Reuters U.S. – September 30, 2015)

http://www.reuters.com/

NEW YORK/LONDON/SINGAPORE, Sept 30 (Reuters) – The global silver-coin market is in the grips of an unprecedented supply squeeze, forcing some mints to ration sales and step up overtime while sending U.S. buyers racing abroad to fulfill a sudden surge in demand.

The U.S. Mint began setting weekly sales quotas for its flagship American Eagle silver coins in July because it can’t meet demand, and the Canadian mint followed suit after record monthly sales in July. In Australia, the Perth Mint sold a record of more than 2.5 million ounces of silver this month, nearly four times more than in August, and has begun rationing supply of a new line of coins this month, a mint official said.

“Silver demand is absolutely through the roof,” said Neil Vance, wholesale manager at the Perth Mint. “There seems to be a bit of frenzy as people think there is a shortage of silver. But in fact it is a (crunch in) manufacturing capacity.”

While demand has risen in response to the slump in spot prices to $14.33 an ounce in late July and its subsequent drop to fresh six-year lows below $14 an ounce in August, mint officials also said they were caught out by the sudden interest in coins.

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Arizona still tops in copper, up 28% in 50 years – by Tom Tracey (Verde Independent – September 29, 2015)

http://verdenews.com/

CLARKDALE — Copper: So important was it to the history of Arizona that it remains front and center on the state flag as a copper-colored star.

Over the years, Arizona has consistently produced more copper than all the other states combined. In fact, 28 percent more copper is being produced now than 50 years ago.

You don’t have to look far for copper. It’s found in airplanes, automobiles, coins, computers construction materials, cookware, radios, telephones, TVs and video games, according to the Arizona Farm Bureau.

“Here at the museum, we have a panel that shows where copper is used,” said Drake Meinke, founder of the Copper Art Museum in Clarkdale.

“For art purposes, about 3 percent of the world’s supply is fabricated into something. The other 97 percent is used for electrical, transportation and construction uses,” said Meinke.

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Installment #4 – “My Old Man:” The Uranium King – The Final Chapter (for now) in the colorful history of Charlie Steen – by Mark Steen (Canyon Country Zephyr – August/September 2002)

http://www.canyoncountryzephyr.com/

In order to follow the history of the exploration and development of the Big Indian mining district it is necessary to understand a few things about the geology of the uranium ore deposits that were found after Charlie Steen discovered the Mi Vida mine. The most important thing to remember is that none of the ore deposits discovered during the next four years were exposed on the surface.

Although the ore bearing host rocks in the Moss Back member of the Chinle formation did outcrop in a few places along the face of the escarpment overlooking the Big Indian Wash, all of the uranium that was found after 1952 was discovered by exploration drilling. My father’s discovery proved that someone could walk over $100 million worth of uranium ore without knowing what lay beneath their feet unless they were willing to risk money on wildcat drilling in the search for totally hidden ore deposits.

Although the Big Indian mining district was developed from the single drill hole Charlie Steen had drilled through 14 feet of high-grade uranium ore on July 6, 1952, none of the other mines in the district were brought into production on the basis of one drill hole. After the Mi Vida mine proved the existence of uranium ore in the Chinle formation, drilling became the chief guide to finding more ore in the district.

Any drill hole that encountered good mineralization of minable thickness required additional drilling to block out the ore body.

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Installment #3 – “My Old Man:” The Uranium King – Charlie Steen strikes it rich and fight his partners to han on to the Mi Vida Mine – by Mark Steen (Canyon Country Zephyr – June/July 2002)

http://www.canyoncountryzephyr.com/

A few days after the Denver Post published its closely worded story about my father’s Big Indian uranium discovery, Moab’s Times-Independent ran an article based on the same announcement that Dad had given to the Denver newspaper. Although the Times-Independent article actually contained more details about the high-grade nature of the uranium mineralization contained in the discovery drill core, not a single person among the newspaper’s readership expressed any interest in helping Dad develop his prospect.

None of the area’s long-time uranium prospectors and miners were convinced that Charlie Steen had really found a uranium bonanza. Folks laughed when they heard that someone from Texas was claiming to have discovered a million dollars worth of uranium in a mining district that everyone knew the experts had already examined and written off as a loser.

In early September, Dad received a letter postmarked Casper, Wyoming from William T. Hudson, his former boss at the Chicago Bridge and Iron Company’s Houston, Texas office. Bill Hudson had overseen the college loans that my father worked off during the summers and had written to congratulate him after reading the Denver Post article.

AT LONG LAST! Charlie tries on a new pair of boots.

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Aborigines have a right to economic development – by Wayne Bergmann (The Australian – September 30, 2015)

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/

In his victory speech, new Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull announced: “There has never been a more exciting time to be alive than today and there has never been a more exciting time to be an Australian. We will ensure that all Australians understand that their government recognises the opportunities of the future.”

If federal, state and territory governments are to ensure that Aboriginal Australians are included in these “opportunities of the future”, it is obvious their first priority should be to support the economic initiatives of Aboriginal people.

Remarkably, some governments do not understand this. Take the most recent Queensland state governments.

On Cape York Peninsula near Aurukan, there’s $20 billion worth of bauxite waiting to be mined. The traditional owners of the area, the Wik and Wik Way people, eager to be part of the economic development of their region, formed a joint venture with an Australian mining company to create Aurukan Bauxite Developments and planned to mine the resource.

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BHP Billiton’s split may have lessons for Alcoa – by James Regan (Reuters U.S. – September 29, 2015)

http://www.reuters.com/

SYDNEY – In what could be a cautionary tale for Alcoa Inc, global miner BHP Billiton’s decision to spin off non-core businesses into a separate company is yet to pay off for shareholders.

Alcoa announced on Monday it will break itself in two, separating a faster growing plane and car parts business from traditional alumina and aluminum production as shareholders seek higher returns amid a commodity slump.

BHP used a similar rationale for ring-fencing select operations in Australia, southern Africa and South America into what became South 32 last May to concentrate on its most profitable commodities.

South32 shares fell to a record low on Tuesday of A$1.38, more than a third below its listing price. BHP stock, at A$21.61 at Australia’s Tuesday close, is the lowest in seven years.

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Peru Declares Martial Law in Two Regions After Protests – by Ryan Dube (Wall Street Journal – September 29, 2015)

http://www.wsj.com/

Protests against the country’s biggest copper project resulted in at least three deaths

LIMA, Peru—Peru on Tuesday declared martial law in parts of its southern highlands after protests against the country’s biggest copper project resulted in at least three deaths.

The protests are the latest to hit Peru’s mining sector, which is one of the world’s top producers of copper, gold and silver. Mining accounts for about 50% of Peru’s exports.

The prime minister’s office said that martial law would be implemented in four provinces in the Apurímac region and two provinces in the neighboring Cuzco region, located high in Peru’s southern Andes.

Local residents clashed with police on Monday during protests against the $7.4 billion Las Bambas copper mine, owned by a consortium led by China’s MMG Ltd.

During the 30-day period of martial law, civil liberties like freedom of association and movement will be restricted, while police are allowed to enter houses without search warrants.

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