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Commodity Super-Cycle and Decline

Rumble in the jungle – Africa and China – (The Economist – April 23, 2011)

The Economist is one of the most globally respected English-language weekly news publications, focusing on international politics, business and opinion.

CHINA has a competitive advantage that is rare among economic powers investing in faraway developing countries: a lack of ancient hostility. In the past decade Chinese investors have been welcomed with open arms in places where Western colonial powers once misbehaved and their descendants sometimes still arouse suspicion.

Hundreds of thousands of Chinese have comfortably set up shop in Africa, bringing with them economic growth and useful technical skills. Their government, eager to loosen constraints on resources and industrial expansion at home, supports them with abundant loans. Africa now supplies 35% of China’s oil. Two-way trade grew by 39% last year.

China deserves credit for engaging a continent that desperately needs investment. Millions of Africans are using roads, schools and hospitals built by Chinese companies or financed with fees from resources they extracted. Not surprisingly, many African leaders have embraced the Chinese, especially when offered vast loans for infrastructure projects. By contrast, the leaders say, Western governments these days offer little more than lectures on good governance.

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Asian demand ‘tsunami’ to buoy commodity prices – Vale [Canada CEO Tito Martins predicts] – by Matthew Hill (Miningweekly.com – May 6, 2011)

Mining Weekly is South Africa’s premier source of weekly news on mining developments in Africa’s most important industry. Mining Weekly provides in-depth coverage of mining projects and the personalities reshaping the mining industry. In order to advance Mining Weekly’s objective of positioning itself as a leading global provider of mining news, a full-time correspondent is based in Toronto, Canada and another in Perth, Australia. 

If you look at it carefully it’s not a wave, it’s a tsunami. [Chinese urbanization] …
I see, for the long term, this scenario of scarcity to remain for at least five years …
I don’t believe producers will have capacity to cope with this huge movement in
urbanisation, people need raw materials…” (Tito Martins, CEO Vale Canada Ltd.
and Executive Director, Base Metals – May 6, 2011)

TORONTO (miningweekly.com) – The world’s second-biggest mining company, announcing record first-quarter profits, on Friday said a “tsunami” of Asian urbanisation would lead to shortages in iron-ore supply at least until 2016 as miners failed to keep pace with demand.

Basic materials executive Tito Martins said that debt problems in the US and Europe would not change this. “It’s a big wave coming. If you look at it carefully it’s not a wave, it’s a tsunami. The earthquake started maybe 10, 15 years ago, when China started moving huge quantities of people from the countryside to the city,” he commented on a conference call.

Martin echoed comments that Anglo-Australian miner Rio Tinto made earlier this year that China had accomplished a magnitude of industrialisation over the past two decades that had taken the Western World 250 years to accomplish.

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South Africa the unlikely new kid on the BRIC block- by Geoffrey York (Globe and Mail-April 14, 2011)

 The Globe and Mail is Canada’s national newspaper with the second largest broadsheet circulation in the country. It has enormous impact and influence on Canada’s political and business elite as well as the rest of the country’s print, radio and television media.

Mr. Zuma could scarcely conceal his exuberance as he expressed his gratitude to the Chinese leaders who had invited South Africa to join the BRIC group. But his presence at the summit is as much about politics as it is business. The club that invited him is increasingly positioning itself as a counterweight to the Western economies, and it needed to recruit an African member, no matter how small it might be on the global stage.

Economically, the BRIC group is already a success. The BRIC economies have grown so dramatically in the past few years that they could overtake the combined size of the G7 nations – the Western-dominated group of economies – within the next decade. Two of the four BRIC founders, China and Brazil, are now ranked among the world’s five biggest economies, with China overtaking Japan last year to rank behind only the United States in size.

Why, then, did they invite the world’s 27th-biggest economy to join their club? Jim O’Neill, the Goldman Sachs economist who coined the “BRIC” term in a 2001 research paper, said he is baffled by the decision to invite South Africa into the group. Other countries in the emerging world – including Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey and South Korea – are much bigger than South Africa, he noted. “It is tough to see how South Africa matches up to these four countries, never mind the BRIC countries,” he wrote in an early assessment.

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Resource Nationalism: The new global economic rent – by John Lee and Johan Erasmus

John Lee is Executive Director, Tax, Ernst & Young LLP and Johan Erasmus is Senior Manager, Tax, Ernst & Young LLP. This column was orginally published in December 2010.

The global financial crisis led to massive budget deficits as many governments injected cash to their economies by way of massive stimulus packages. At the same time, minimized tax collection during and after economic crisis reduced government revenues dramatically.

The relatively swift rebound of the mining and metals industry attracted the attention of deficit-strapped governments and resulted in the industry becoming an early target to replenish national treasuries.

Our company’s report Business Risks Facing Mining and Metals identifies resource nationalism as the fourth-greatest strategic business risk the sector is facing (up from ninth place in 2009). The report identifies how mineral-rich countries are renewing efforts to ensure that they are extracting sufficient economic rent, including royalties, taxes and duties, for the right of a mining company to exploit their resources.

In some instances, governments are even looking to replace and repair other areas of lost revenue with further imposts on the sector, obtaining a larger share of higher mineral prices.

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The Paradigm Shifts: Global Imbalances, Policy, and Latin America – Mark Carney – Governor of the Bank of Canada Calgary [Commodities] Speech (March 26, 2011)

Remarks by Mark Carney – Governor of the Bank of Canada – Inter-American Development Bank, Calgary, Alberta (26 March 2011)

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“Commodity markets are in the midst of a supercycle. …This surge in demand is the result of rapid growth in the emerging world, particularly in Asia. …Rapid urbanization underpins this growth. Since 1990, the number of people living in cities in China and India has risen by nearly 500 million, the equivalent of housing the entire population of Canada 15 times over. …Even though history teaches that all booms are finite, this one could go on for some time.” (Governor of the Bank of Canada – Mark Carney, March 26, 2011)

Introduction

Globalization is the opportunity and the challenge of our age. It has the potential to lift billions out of poverty, vastly expand economic prospects, and develop a more diverse and resilient global economy. However, globalization also brings stresses, so policy-makers will need both discipline and new frameworks to realise its promise.

The financial crisis has accelerated the shift in the world’s economic centre of gravity. Emerging-market economies (EMEs) now account for almost three-quarters of global growth—up from just one-third at the turn of the millennium.

Although this paradigm shift to a multipolar world is fundamentally positive, it is also disruptive. Labour, capital and commodity markets are changing rapidly. The effective global labour supply quadrupled between 1980 and 2005 and may double again by 2050.1 Cross-border capital flows have exploded, growing at a rate almost seven times the peak during the last wave of globalization.2 Commodity markets are in the midst of a supercycle.

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Governments should fund railroad to Ontario’s Ring of Fire mining camp – by Stan Sudol

Temiskaming & Northern Ontario Railway at the turn of the last century

This column was published in the March 17, 2011 issue of Northern Life.

Stan Sudol is a Toronto-based communications consultant who writes extensively on mining issues. stan.sudol@republicofmining.com

For an extensive list of articles on this mineral discovery, please go to: Ontario’s Ring of Fire Mineral Discovery

“In the next 25 years, demand for metals could meet or exceed what we have used
since the beginning of the industrial revolution. By way of illustration, China needs to
build three cities larger than Sydney or Toronto every year until 2030 to accommodate
rural to urban growth.” (John McGagh, Rio Tinto – Head of Innovation)

Commodity Super Cycle is Back

The commodity super cycle is back, and with a vengeance. China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and many other developing economies are continuing their rapid pace of industrialization and urbanization. In 2010, China overtook Japan to become the world’s second largest economy and surpassed the United States to become the biggest producer of cars.

During a recent speech in Calgary, Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of Canada remarked, “Commodity markets are in the midst of a supercycle. …Rapid urbanization underpins this growth. Since 1990, the number of people living in cities in China and India has risen by nearly 500 million, the equivalent of housing the entire population of Canada 15 times over. …Even though history teaches that all booms are finite, this one could go on for some time.”

At the annual economics conference in Davos, Switzerland, held last January – where the most respected world leaders in politics, economics and academia gather – the consensus was one of enormous global prosperity predicting that, “For only the third time since the Industrial Revolution, the world may be entering a long-term growth cycle that will lift all economies simultaneously…”

John McGagh, head of innovation, at Rio Tinto – the world’s third largest mining company – has said, “In the next 25 years, demand for metals could meet or exceed what we have used since the beginning of the industrial revolution. By way of illustration, China needs to build three cities larger than Sydney or Toronto every year until 2030 to accommodate rural to urban growth. This equates to the largest migration of population from rural to urban living in the history of mankind.”

The isolated Ring of Fire mining camp, located in the James Bay lowlands of Ontario’s far north, is one of the most exciting and possibly the richest new Canadian mineral discovery made in over a generation. It has been compared to both the Sudbury Basin and the Abitibi Greenstone belt, which includes Timmins, Kirkland Lake, Noranda and Val d’Or.

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Yes Virginia, there is a commodity super-cycle (August 3, 2007) – Stan Sudol

This column was originally published in the August 3, 2007 issue of Northern Life.

Stan Sudol is a Toronto-based communications consultant who writes extensively on mining issues. stan.sudol@republicofmining.com

Emerging economies are growing at record levels

Sometimes when it looks, sounds and walks like a duck…then it is duck! The continuing decline in the price of some metals including nickel has many analysts clucking that this mining boom is over.

That is definitely not the case according to Europe’s top-ranked natural resources investor BlackRock Merrill Lynch Investment Managers. Blackrock is one of the world’s largest publicly traded investment management firms with assets of about $1.23 trillion (US). Let me emphasis that the figure is trillion not billion!

Evy Hambro, who manages Blackrock’s World Mining Fund, recently said in Britain’s Telegraph newspaper, “We find it astonishing that, six years into a cycle, the analysts are still getting it wrong. They have been too pessimistic for six years in a row and seem to be behaving like desperate gamblers, always betting on the same number.”

According to Hambro, the four emerging giant economies – the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries – will need more oil, aluminum and copper by 2015 than the entire planet used last year. According to current projections, the BRIC countries alone will need 121 percent of oil, 140 percent of aluminum and 105 percent of copper produced globally last year.

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The not-new, not-a-cycle mining supercycle – by David Robinson

Dr. David Robinson is an economist at Laurentian University in Sudbury, Canada. His column was originally published in March 2011 issue of Sudbury Mining Solutions Journal a magazine that showcases the mining expertise of North Bay, Timmins and Sudbury.  drobinson@laurentian.ca

Mr. Keynes had it right: the financial community is very, very emotional. We are barely climbing out of what many were calling the great recession, and suddenly a flock of bankers and business reporters are babbling about a new economic supercycle.

Well, I have news for them. There is no new supercycle. Don’t run off and sell all your mining stocks, though. This isn’t bad news – it’s just a better way of understanding the good news.

To start with, the supercycle isn’t new. Even Gerard Lyons, the guy who wrote The Supercycle Report, shows the cycle starting in 2000. It is the same old supercycle that we were talking about five years ago in this space.

Second, it isn’t a cycle. An interesting thing about the figures from Gerard Lyons is that they show a gradually rising growth rate, not a series of cycles. Each of the so-called high cycles got a bit higher.

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PwC NEWS RELEASE: China’s role in global mining M&A overstated – Canadian buyers top world

China ramps up deal activity, but Canada outpaced the nation in 2010 36% to 6%: PwC report

Click here for: You Can’t Always Get What You Want: Global Mining Deals 2010

TORONTO, Mar. 3, 2011— Dispelling the myth that China is amassing de facto control of the world’s mining resources via mergers and acquisitions (M&A), data for the decade ended December 010 shows China remains a small player in global mining M&A. In 2010, only 6% of global mining
deals involved Chinese acquirers, compared to acquirers from Canada (36%), the United States (16%) nd Australia (16%), according to PwC’s new Mining Deals report released today.

Canada has always been a top destination for mining deals, but this year, Canada also topped buy-side ctivity – both within Canada and abroad.

“The reality is China has been a very active investor in global mining projects in recent years, but its urrent market share pales in comparison to Canada and other developed countries,” says John yholt, National Leader of Transaction Services, PwC. “Chinese-led M&A this decade has been
impressive, but consider that Rio Tinto and Xstrata alone have completed more acquisitions during he first ten years of this millennium than all Chinese buyers collectively.”

The PwC report tracked 713 deals in 2010 that involved a Canadian buyer compared to 161 involving a Chinese buyer. Year-end results bring the decade ended 2010 tally to 400 Chinese deals worth close to US$48 billion, which is considerable given Chinese buyers were negligible players in mining M&A only ten years ago.

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NEWS RELEASE : Survey shows global mining industry optimistic towards new investment while Australia recovers in global rankings

The Fraser Institute is a conservative think tank based in Canada that espouses free market principles. Its stated mandate is to advocate for freedom and competitive markets. – (Wiki). Click here for: The Fraser Institute’s Survey of Mining Companies.

March 3, 2011

TORONTO, CANADA–The worldwide economic turnaround has created optimism in the mining sector, with the global mining industry primed for new exploration and investment in 2011, according to the Survey of Mining Companies 2010/2011, released today by the Fraser Institute, Canada’s leading public policy think-tank.

More than three quarters of survey respondents said they expected to increase their exploration budgets in 2011, as detailed in the annual global survey of the world’s best places for mineral exploration and development.

The survey also shows that Australia has regained the confidence of the mining industry after taking a hard hit in the special Survey of Mining Companies: 2010 Mid-Year Update, following the Australian government’s plan to impose a heavy Resources Super Profits Tax (RSPT) on the mining industry.

“The Australian government has since announced it would back away from the proposed tax, earning a positive reaction and improved rankings from the global mining industry,” said Fred McMahon, coordinator of the survey and the Institute’s vice-president of international policy research.

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NEWS RELEASE: Canada becomes the destination of choice for mining transactions: Ernst & Young

Please click here to view the executive summary of the report: Ungeared for Growth

Deal activity to ramp up in 2011, while companies roll the dice on frontier markets

(Vancouver – 23 February, 2010) Canada’s mining and metals sector is set to heat up in 2011 with increased deal activity, more diverse buyer competition and a continued appetite for projects in frontier markets, according to Ernst & Young.

“Canadian M&A activity has made an incredible rebound with companies reaping the rewards of reinvigorated balance sheets and flushed with cash from high commodity prices – particularly gold and copper,” said Tom Whelan, Leader of Ernst & Young’s national Mining practice. “In 2010, a third of all global gold deals took place in Canada, with over half of all deals conducted by Canadian companies. The largest of these was Kinross Gold’s acquisition of Red Back Mining, valued at US$7.4 billion.”

Ernst & Young’s annual mining and metals transactions report, Ungeared for growth, finds that Canada emerged from 2010 as the preferred destination for transaction activity in the sector globally, ahead of the US, Australia and Brazil. Canada was also the most active acquirer last year, ahead of both Australia and China, and up from fourth place in 2009.

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[Commodity] Super-Cycle Leaves No Economy Behind as Davos Shifts to Growth – Simon Kennedy (January 23, 2011)

This article was originally posted on the http://www.businessweek.com/ website on January 23, 2010.

Jan. 24, 2011 (Bloomberg) — For only the third time since the Industrial Revolution, the world may be entering a long-term growth cycle that will lift all economies simultaneously, driving bond yields and commodity prices higher.

The depth and scope of the expansion will be a focus for discussion at this week’s annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Evidence of a broadening global recovery will enable U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, investor George Soros and 2,500 political, business and academic leaders to shift their emphasis away from crisis- fighting.

With the economic and investment outlooks “much better” than in recent years, “people are talking about how to get back to business as normal and what comes next,” said Jitesh Gadhia, a delegate to the conference and the London-based senior managing director at Blackstone Group LP, which runs the world’s largest buyout fund.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP and London’s Standard Chartered Bank are among the financial companies sending executives to the meeting. Their economists predict a growth spurt in coming decades led by emerging nations that will be strong enough to boost developed countries.

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Prosperity is Created, not Inherited – Ontario Mineral Industry Cluster: A Case in Point (2007)

Published in the Ontario Mineral Exploration Review by the Ontario Ministry of Northern Development and Mines in 2007. www.omicc.ca

National, provincial and regional governments are continually searching for new tools to improve the economic prosperity of their citizens. Prosperity is a widely used term in government documents, reports and position papers. Evidence from both the developed and developing world is that economic prosperity is created, not inherited.

For example, some countries and regions rich in natural resources remain poor, whereas other countries and regions with little in the way of a natural endowment have and continue to enjoy a higher standard of living. Inherited comparative advantages such as natural resources, geographic location, or a supply of labour are becoming less important in achieving prosperity.

According Harvard professor Michael Porter, renowned for his pioneering work on competitiveness and cluster theory, “A nation can be prosperous and productive in virtually any field. What matters is how a nation competes, not what industry it competes in…we must stop thinking that traditional industries are bad and that the nation must move into high tech”.

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Mining clusters fuel economic growth – by Indira Singh (September, 2006)

Interrelated industries and institutions drive wealth creation

Clusters are a group of interrelated industries and institutions that drive wealth creation primarily through innovation and the export of goods and services. Clustered industries mutually reinforce and enhance
competitive advantage by acting as each other’s consumers, competitors, partners, suppliers and sources of research and development.

The Ontario Mineral Industry Cluster (OMIC) includes exploration companies, major mine operators, service and equipment suppliers, labour, training and education institutions, associations and other allied entities. Other well-known clusters include Hollywood, California’s Silicon Valley, Ottawa’s Silicon Valley North, the Netherlands’ cut flower industry and Houston’s oil and gas sector.

Over the last decade, clusters have attracted substantial attention from policy makers, legislatures, business leaders, academics, economic development practitioners and development agencies around the world.
Governments with widely differing ideologies in more than 30 countries and in the majority of U.S. states have adopted cluster-based economic development models. The cluster approach is also used by European governments, as well as governments in the Asia-Pacific region.

Why clusters work

Productivity and productive growth are the fundamental drivers of prosperity. Innovation is the key driver of productivity. Clusters drive innovation, economic growth and development.

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