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South Africa has a long-standing chrome value chain that sustains 200 000 jobs and R42-billion a year in gross domestic product (GDP), but the industry speaks with one voice when it says that it is in meltdown mode.
If things go on like this, it could shed 60 000 to 80 000 of those jobs and lose its once dominant market position to China, despite China having no chrome of its own.
The contribution of the ferrochrome industry to South Africa’s GDP could plunge to R23-billion, and chrome ore prices could collapse.
On the environmental protection front, global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from production would rise by at least 15% a ton as a result of the displacement of capacity from the world’s most efficient South African smelters to the world’s least efficient energy-sapping and CO2-spewing Chinese smelters.