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Flickers of life in West Australian mining towns even as iron ore’s profits dim – by Calla Wahlquist (The Guardian – April 21, 2015)

http://www.theguardian.com/international

Some towns have gone, but others have diversified from iron ore to cattle farming and new businesses

Three hours from the centre of Western Australia’s iron ore industry, a scrubby patch of ground stands as a reminder of what happens to mining towns when the money moves on.

The patchy outline of a football oval is all that’s left of the town of Shay Gap, which once had a population of 650. Lang Coppin, an East Pilbara shire councillor whose family runs Yarrie Station, where the town was built, can spot it when he flies over the area in his helicopter – but that’s only because he knows where to look.

“You will drive past there now and if you didn’t know where the town was you wouldn’t believe it,” Coppin said. “You wouldn’t know you went past a town that once had schools, football ovals, shops.”

Founded by Mount Goldsworthy Mining Associates in the early 70s as a worker hub for nearby iron ore operations, Shay Gap closed two months after the mine ceased operation in February 1994.

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Iron ore price crash erases $74b in market value – by Tess Ingram (Sydney Morning Herald – April 20, 2015)

http://www.smh.com.au/

The plummeting iron ore price has wiped $74 billion from the value of Australia’s key iron ore mining stocks since January 2014, and analysts expect share prices to continue their decline as the price for the commodity slides.

Investors that held on to the stocks while the price for iron ore sank during the past 15 months are now nursing losses in value of as much as 92 per cent.

Together, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto, Fortescue Metals Group, Mount Gibson Iron, Atlas Iron, BC Iron, Arrium and Grange Resources suffered enormously as ore prices slumped 60 per cent from $US134 a tonne in January 2014 to $US50.93 a tonne on Friday.

A combined $73.7 billion, or 22 per cent of value, has been erased from their market capitalisations since January 2, 2014.

Excluding the diversified big miners, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, the combined market value of the six remaining companies has declined 71 per cent or $17.2 billion.

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BHP Spinoff’s Tailspin Is Dream for X2’s Mick Davis: Real M&A – by Brett Foley, Firat Kayakiran and James Paton (Bloomberg News – April 20, 2015)

http://www.bloomberg.com/

The plunging value of BHP Billiton Ltd.’s planned mining spinoff could hardly be better timed for the man who’s thinking of buying it.

Weeks from listing, the valuation of the new company, called South32, has plunged by almost half to as little as $7 billion, based on current prices for its products including alumina, manganese and nickel, Deutsche Bank AG estimated this month. That’s a gift for Mick Davis and his X2 Resources fund, which is weighing an eventual bid for South32, according to people familiar with his plans.

Davis, the former head of mining giant Xstrata Plc, has an untapped $5.6 billion fund that could be bolstered with debt to swallow a larger business. Amid the worst commodity slump in half a decade, South32 is still a target, with some analysts expecting its earnings to rebound when prices recover.

“They are good assets in challenged industries,” said Paul Phillips, a Melbourne-based analyst with Perennial Investment Partners Ltd., which manages about A$18.5 billion ($14 billion) of assets. “They have a lot of attractive features.”

BHP is carving off the business to focus on a smaller group of commodities and South32 is set to start trading May 18 in Australia, South Africa and the U.K. The newly formed company will include an Australian mine that’s the world’s largest silver and lead operation, a nickel mine in Colombia and aluminum assets in three countries.

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Three pension funds oppose Barrick Gold’s executive compensation – by Lisa Wright (Toronto Star – April 18, 2015)

The Toronto Star has the largest circulation in Canada. The paper has an enormous impact on federal and Ontario politics as well as shaping public opinion.

Pension plans in Ontario, B.C. and the Netherlands say they will vote against the re-election of the miner’s board of directors at annual meeting April 28

Three of the world’s largest pension funds say they won’t support the re-election of Barrick Gold Corp.’s board of directors or its executive compensation plan that includes a pay hike of 35 per cent for the board chairman.

The Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, British Columbia Investment Management Corporation and the Netherlands’ PGGM Vermogensbeheer B.V., which is one of Europe’s biggest pension funds, said Friday they will oppose the Toronto gold miner’s controversial pay scheme that awards $12.9 million U.S. ahead of the board’s annual meeting April 28.

The pension funds join two major proxy advisors who recently recommended shareholders vote against a boost in executive compensation after a year in which Barrick reported a net loss of $2.9 billion and lost a third of its market value as the gold price tanked.

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World’s Lowest Cost Iron Ore Miner Turns Screw on Rivals – by Jesse Riseborough (Bloomberg News – April 17, 2015)

http://www.bloomberg.com/

Rio Tinto Group Chief Executive Officer Sam Walsh is fast becoming the worst nightmare of rival iron-ore producers starved of cash.

Iron ore prices have slumped by more than half in a year on a deepening global supply glut. That’s pushed some into bankruptcy and left others on life support. News that the lowest-cost producer is mining a ton of ore even more cheaply signals a more protracted price slump.

After achieving an industry-leading $19.50 a ton last year, currency movements and a drop in fuel costs mean Rio Tinto is now producing at $17, Walsh told investors in London on Thursday. The company is still seeking ways to ship it to Asian buyers more cheaply, he said.

“I know there’s a lot of controversy,” Walsh said. “I know that there’s a lot of late entries into the market who have taken advantage of higher prices and they are now feeling the impact of that as prices have come down. ‘‘This is rational, normal economics,’’ he said. ‘‘This is what physically happens across a range of commodities not just iron ore. It’s a process that we and others have got to work through.’’

The strategy, employed by the world’s largest producers, of continuing to expand output in the face of a price rout has earned the ire of some analysts, investors and loss-making rivals. Rio’s main competitor BHP Billiton Ltd. has described the tactic as ‘‘squeezing the lemon.”

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UPDATE 1-Apart from Big 3, iron ore miners face ‘existential’ threat – Goldman – by Manolo Serapio Jr (Reuters U.S. – April 16, 2015)

http://www.reuters.com/

SINGAPORE, April 16 (Reuters) – Up to half of iron ore output by miners outside the three mega producers in Australia and Brazil is at risk of closure with global demand set to peak at about 1.4 billion tonnes next year, Goldman Sachs said.

Production volumes among top miners – Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton – was not at risk, the bank said. “However, the rest of the industry is now facing an existential challenge,” Goldman analysts Christian Lelong and Amber Cai said in a report.

“We expect seaborne iron ore demand to peak in 2016 as the displacement of marginal Chinese iron ore production fails to offset a contraction in domestic steel consumption,” they said.

Separately, Moody’s Investors Service said supply reductions were dwarfed by planned increases estimated to exceed 300 million tonnes over the next several years.

Goldman cut its 2015 iron ore price estimate by 18 percent to $52 a tonne. It forecast $44 in 2016 and $40 in 2017 and 2018, down 29-33 percent from previous estimates. The price could drop to $40 this year and next, based on Moody’s estimates.

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Iron ore in fresh crisis as forward prices crumble – by Henning Gloystein and Manolo Serapio Jr. (Reuters India – April 10, 2015)

http://in.reuters.com/

SINGAPORE – (Reuters) – Iron ore is veering to a new crisis as prices for future delivery of the commodity slide 30 percent in the space of a month, and its outlook is now more bearish than oil and more dire than ever for miners struggling to just stay in business.

Prices of the steel-making ingredient for immediate delivery have slumped 60 percent over the past year as demand particularly from China slowed rapidly.

Despite the crumbling cash market, miners had been able to hedge future production at prices well above spot levels. Indeed, a month ago, miners could still sell 2017 output at close to $70 a tonne even as April 2015 prices fell below $60 for the first time in more than five years.

Forward iron ore prices have since tumbled below $47 for deliveries all the way until the end of 2017, depriving nearly all miners of any chance of establishing hedges at or above breakeven levels during that period.

A combination of factors brought about the recent capitulation in forward prices, most notably news that China plans to subsidise its iron ore sector to protect its flagging steel industry. Subsidies would help keep mines open and keep supplies flowing.

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Tax office pursues BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto over Singapore tax shelter – by Neil Chenoweth (Australian Financial Review – April 6, 2015)

http://www.afr.com/

Mining giants BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto are being pursued by the Australian Taxation Office for channelling billions of dollars in profits from iron ore sales through companies that pay almost no tax in Singapore.

While BHP Billiton and Rio TInto are Australia’s largest taxpayers, The Australian Financial Review has obtained documents that show the two mining companies report $2.6 billion a year in profits in their Singapore marketing hubs where they pay tax rates as low as 2.5 per cent.

The arrangements save the two companies more than $750 million a year in Australian tax and the ATO regards it as tax avoidance under the transfer pricing rules. The ATO is pursuing multibillion-dollar claims against each company, says a source with direct knowledge of the disputes.

The exact amounts of the potential tax bills are unclear and both companies have fought the ATO for years and argue their Singapore operations were not set up to reduce tax.

With scores of Australian companies rushing to open their own Singapore operations, the BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto cases shape as key precedents for the ATO, which has been warning of compliance problems with marketing hubs since 2010.

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Deutsche Bank cuts [BHP Billiton] South32 valuation – by Amanda Saunders (Sydney Morning Herald – April 2, 2015)

http://www.smh.com.au/

South32, the company being created in the demerger of BHP Billiton, will be in a “perfect position” to pursue acquisitions of up to $US3 billion ($3.9 billion) in Australian coal, and offshore in base metals and manganese – but its stock is likely to trade at just about $2 a share, well short of market expectations, according to Deutsche Bank.

Deutsche mining analyst Paul Young cut his valuation of South32 from $US13 billion to $US11.2 billion after reviewing the more than 1500 pages of shareholder documents on the spin-off released by BHP last month. His valuation for the spin-off falls to $US7 billion when based on current spot prices for commodities.

While the new company’s growth and savings opportunities will be limited, parent BHP with its strong balance sheet has put it “in the perfect position to pursue [value enhancing] acquisitions up to $US3 billion”, Mr Young said.

Also playing in its favour is the fact that the largest miners are selling non-core assets following the fall in commodities prices, and have all but ruled out acquisitions.

South32 is expected to first eye greenfield mining assets, rather than entire companies, according to the analyst report. High up on its list would be Anglo American’s 40 per cent stake, valued at $US1.4 billion, in the maganese group Samancor.

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A Word From The Editor-in-Chief, March 27, 2015 – by Michael Stutchbury (Australian Financial Review – March 28, 2015)

http://www.afr.com/

Andrew Forrest’s eye-popping call for the world’s big iron ore producers to drive the iron ore price back up by capping their production shows what crazy things the desperate can do. Twiggy even made his “national interest” call in Shanghai, among Chinese buyers of the iron ore dug up by his own Fortescue, Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Brazil’s Vale and just as he was about to meet Xi Jinping.

The Fortescue founder is a man of bold ambition and enthusiasm: creating the third force in Australian iron ore, enlisting the Pope to help end modern slavery, and pushing Tony Abbott to narrow indigenous disadvantage. He won’t end up behind bars for his latest big idea, but he is calling for what both Joe Hockey and ACCC chairman Rod Sims suggested would be an illegal producer cartel. As our Matthew Stevens asked: What was Forrest thinking?

Twiggy’s call is a spectacular sign of Australia’s big iron ore price squeeze. Forrest became a billionaire in the 2000s by creating Fortescue on the back of the China boom that drove the iron ore price from US$20 or so a tonne to $US180 a tonne. Now supply has belatedly responded to the increased demand, the price has hurtled back into the US$50s. That’s crunching Fortescue’s margins and forced it to keep producing more to keep its head above water.

In fact, in the past four years, Fortescue has boosted output more than Rio or BHP. But that’s just kept driving down the price towards Fortescue’s cost of production.

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NEWS RELEASE: What Does South32 Mean for the Nickel and Manganese Markets?

LONDON, March 19, 2015 /PRNewswire/ — In August 2014, BHP Billiton (BHPB) announced that it intended to demerge its aluminium, coal, manganese, nickel and silver assets into a new, independent global mining and metals company. In December, it was announced that the proposed company will be branded “South32”, to reflect the fact that its major operations will be in the southern hemisphere, in Australia and South Africa. This week saw the publication of a demerger prospectus which provided more detail about the spin-off:

  • South32 will be a top-10 global mining company headquartered in Perth, Western Australia, and will produce 10 commodities across five countries
  • After the demerger, which will cost an estimated US$738M, the company will have a gross asset value of US$26.7Bn
  • South32’s portfolio of assets made a pre-tax profit of US$422M in 2014 on revenues of US$10.4Bn
  • The company will begin life with a US$1.5Bn credit facility provided by a syndicate of banks to ensure that it has adequate liquidity
  • BHPB has loaded South32 with less debt than expected, US$674M
  • Shareholders will vote on the demerger in May

The creation of South32 has the potential to significantly impact the manganese and nickel markets:

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South32 looks better bet than parent BHP Billiton by Clyde Russell (Reuters U.S. – March 17, 2015)

http://www.reuters.com/

LAUNCESTON, Australia – (Reuters) – BHP Billiton has done a great job in making its spin-off South32 look attractive, perhaps to the point where it may be a better bet than its parent.

The world’s largest miner released documents on Tuesday outlining details for the new company, which will take over BHP’s aluminum, manganese, nickel, silver and some coal assets.

These assets are often described in the media as “unloved,” but the outlook for many of them is better than the core of iron ore, petroleum, copper and metallurgical coal that will remain with BHP. South32, so named for the line of latitude that links its main operating centers of South Africa and Australia, will get a head start from its parent.

The new company will assume only $674 million in net debt, about half the level analysts had expected, providing a boost to the management should they decide to pursue mergers and acquisitions. Analysts expect the new company, which will list in Australia, the United Kingdom and South Africa, will be worth up to $13 billion.

The South32 assets contributed net profit after tax of $738 million to BHP for the half year to December 2014, again an upside surprise that bodes well for the new company’s reception.

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Iron ore strategy the road to ‘self-destruction’, warns Cliffs chief – by Paul Garvey (The Australian – March 12, 2015)

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business

AUSTRALIA’S big iron ore ­miners are on a path towards “self-destruction” and could leave the country with a case to answer before the World Trade Organ­isation, the head of North America’s largest iron ore miner has warned.

Lourenco Goncalves, chief executive of US iron ore miner Cliffs Natural Resources, yesterday told the Global Iron Ore and Steel Forecast conference in Perth the surge in iron ore supply from producers such as BHP Billi­ton, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals could send the price of Australia’s most important export to permanently lower levels.

Iron ore prices have more than halved in the past year as surging production swamped cooling demand, although the key iron ore index rebounded slightly yesterday to end a six-day losing streak.

Mr Goncalves said the price of seaborne iron ore shipped by Australian miners could halve again from about $US60 a tonne to as low as $US30 as a result of the major miners’ expansion strategy. “You call that strategy? I call it self-destruction,” Mr Goncalves said.

On Tuesday, Rio Tinto iron ore chief Andrew Harding and his BHP counterpart, Jimmy Wilson, defended their companies’ roles in the creation of the supply glut, arguing that each tonne of supply they did not deliver would have been filled with lesser-quality ore from elsewhere.

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COLUMN-Who benefits from the iron ore supply glut? Nobody? – by Clyde Russell (Reuters U.S. – March 11, 2015)

http://www.reuters.com/

PERTH, March 11 (Reuters) – One question that skulks like an elephant in a room where the iron ore industry has gathered is who has benefited the most from bulging global supplies.

The Anglo-Australian pair of BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto are happy to tell you how they have successfully ramped up output at costs low enough to still rake in profits.

That was very much their message at this week’s Global Iron Ore & Steel Forecast conference in the Western Australia capital city.

The smaller miners suffering from the collapse in Asian spot iron ore prices are only too willing to speak of their battle to survive amid what they see as the destruction of the value of an industry that is Australia’s largest export earner.

The price of iron ore .IO62-CNI=SI hit its lowest on record on Tuesday, at $58 a tonne, with this year’s decline of 19 percent compounding last year’s slump of 47 percent.

Steel industry officials in China, the destination of two-thirds of the world’s seaborne iron ore, will also tell you how their industry suffers from overcapacity, poor profits and the economy’s shift to consumption-led growth.

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BHP, Rio Tinto Say Chinese Demand for Iron Ore Not Fading – by Rhiannon Hoyle (Wall Street Journal – March 10, 2015)

http://www.wsj.com/

BHP executive says outlook for China’s resource demand remains compelling

SYDNEY—The world’s two largest mining companies say they are convinced China’s hunger for iron ore isn’t about to fade, even as the price plumbed new lows after Beijing’s official acceptance it is set for slower economic growth.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, BHP Billiton Ltd. ’s iron-ore president Jimmy Wilson said the outlook for China’s resource demand remained compelling, as the world’s second-largest economy expands from a larger base level.

He said demand for steelmaking ingredient iron ore from the country’s manufacturing sector had been running above BHP’s expectations in recent months and the country’s cooling property market could also be set for an uptick.

“I think we have to appreciate that China is getting bigger—they are targeting 7% [growth] and they are actually uncannily capable of delivering against those targets,” Mr. Wilson said. “We should never underestimate what is happening in China, and what continues to happen in China.”

His remarks echoed earlier comments from Rio Tinto PLC’s iron-ore chief executive Andrew Harding, who expressed optimism Beijing can maneuver the Chinese economy into a new stage of growth during a speech in Perth on Tuesday.

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