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Mark Twain, if he were alive today, would likely update his famous refrain to “Lies, damned lies, statistics and politics.” I want to state emphatically that I am not “political,” and this is not one iota an attempt to be “political”.
Being a Canadian resident and citizen, I am not even eligible to vote on November 5th . When I penned something critical of the Democrats a couple of months ago, I received my fair share of hate mail and had some subscribers threaten to cancel their subscription with me. The problem is that politics, markets, and economics are all intertwined, and everything I write is aimed at being analytical rather than judgmental.
First, let me address the latest Goldman Sachs report, which claims that a Trump victory would be more damaging to the economy than a Harris sweep. I have no idea what the Goldman model posits, but it likely underestimates the multiplier impact from corporate tax hikes, to depressed profits, to a negative capex cycle, and the leakages this exerts on job creation and consumer spending — this swamps the static impact of giveaway tax credits to low-income households (which will be used to meet their food, rent, and utility bills but do little to spur the cyclical segments of the economy).
For the rest of this column: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-david-rosenberg-trump-vs-harris-and-the-us-election-outcome-all/