Many of the world’s biggest nickel mines are facing an increasingly bleak future as they wake up to an existential threat: a near limitless supply of low-cost metal from Indonesia. With roughly half of all nickel operations unprofitable at recent prices, the bosses of the largest mining companies last week sounded a warning that there was little prospect of a recovery.
The potential collapse of nickel mining from Australia to New Caledonia comes at a time when western governments are scrambling to secure the supply chains needed to decarbonize the global economy. But in an ironic twist, Indonesia’s coal-fired nickel output is pricing out greener metal that’s so far failed to command a market premium.
Wresting control of strategic metals from China has become a focal point of Joe Biden’s administration. Yet while US officials have dashed around the world looking to strike deals for materials such as cobalt and copper, the heaviest reverse has come in Chinese-backed Indonesian nickel, a key component of electric vehicles.
Indonesia now accounts for more than half of world supply, with the potential to reach three-quarters of all production toward the end of the decade.
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