The surge in commodity prices has been impressive since mid-2020, predictably resulting in calls that a new “supercycle” is underway. We have questioned that narrative, given the apparent supply-demand imbalances plaguing the globe and boosting prices in the process.
But one theme we do agree with is the long-term secular tailwinds behind a number of commodities required in the transition to a green economy in order to address climate change.
To better visualize commodity performance and gauge investor sentiment to the “greening of the world” thematic, we created an index tracking those we believe will be relied upon in this transition. This is not an exhaustive list, however, as reliable pricing and data sources are hard to come by for some commodities.
That said, we feel it best captures the most relevant ones for a low carbon/greener world. The components are mentioned below along with a brief summary of their outlook. On the metals/mining front, the World Bank estimates more than three billion tons of metals and minerals will be needed for renewable energy infrastructure by 2050 in order to achieve the goals from the Paris Agreement.