“The path to economic recovery will be long and slow,” says Intl FCStone metals analyst Natalie Scott-Gray.
Demand for base metals outside China is not expected to recover back to 2019 levels until 2022 or 2023 due, in large part, to the impacts of the covid-19 pandemic on the global economy.
Although the U.K. is already administering vaccinations for covid-19 and multiple vaccines are forecast to be approved and distributed by the end of the year, Scott-Gray said, “To reach global herd immunity (when 60-70% of the population are immunized), the earliest dates being suggested are from late spring to December 2021,” she told The Northern Miner in an email.
“This means that realistically we have at least another six months (if not longer) ahead of us in which there could be further virus spreads, more rolling lockdowns, and social distancing measures staying in place.”
There is also the risk, she added, that the V-shape recovery in China will slow down as the central bank moves to normalize monetary policy and gradually pull back from stimulus measures.
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