What the world looks like when the crisis ends is truly anyone’s guess, but I will say with 100-per-cent clarity that it is going to look a lot different than it did before.
Months of isolation and distancing and fear of a return of the pandemic are going to fundamentally alter lifestyles and will have a profound influence not just on the way we live but how we conduct ourselves in our business and commercial lives.
Working from home is certainly going to be a more dominant force, with obvious negative implications for commercial real estate, but positive implications for internet infrastructure, computer hardware and video conferencing.
There is going to be a sharp reduction in travel to work, indeed travel in general, and this means fewer cars on the road. All the reasons to avoid the energy sector will now be accentuated, and there’s nothing good here for the auto sector or office real estate investment trusts.
Delivery services, on the other hand, have now become an essential, so here is a budding bull market right there for Amazon.com and any business model that copies it.