Here’s a truth few dare to utter: Canada will benefit from climate change – by Joe Oliver (Financial Post – August 15, 2019)

“Unfortunately, at only 1.6 per cent of global GHG emissions, Canada
cannot achieve a measurable impact on global temperatures, even if
it met the latest UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change target,
which would devastate our economy.”

Why should Canada fight climate change? Finally, someone proclaimed an obvious truth that few dare to utter publicly. According to Moody’s Analytics, Canada will benefit from climate change. Although it will shock many, this forecast should surprise no one.

Canada is a very large, cold country, with 90 per cent of its population huddled within 100 miles of its southern border and an enormous agricultural potential if the land warms up. There will also be new opportunities for oil, gas and mineral development in the Arctic. And let’s not ignore the greater personal comfort of living in a more hospitable climate.

According to a CBC story about Moody’s study, “when all the changes to things like tourism demand, crop yields and the growing season are factored in, there’s a slight net positive.”

Assuming a one-degree Celsius temperature rise, Moody’s calculates that our economy would be unaffected in 2048. A rise of 2.4 degrees would increase GDP by 0.1 per cent and four degrees would boost it by 0.3 per cent. Not much, but still positive, and certainly not the terrifying calamity we are warned to expect.

The impact on farming, however, would be dramatic. In the three Prairie provinces alone, an area more than twice the size of France, arable land could increase between 26 and 40 per cent by 2040, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

For the rest of this column:

Comments are closed.