If BMI Research predictions are correct, prices risk staying at painfully low levels for years.
Global nickel production will come out of negative territory this year for the first time since 2013, driven by Indonesia’s export ban moderation, a new report published Monday shows.
Along with Indonesia, Canada and Australia will lead growth output rates from until 2021, while major miners in the number one global producer, the Philippines, will benefit from the ousting of anti-mining minister Gina López from government, BMI Research analysts say.
World nickel production is expected to grow by an average 3.4% each year until 2021, the research arm of Fitch Group said in the report. However, production growth rates during the next five years will remain lower than the 5.3% average rates achieved between 2012 and 2016, they said, citing higher nickel prices experienced before the commodities slump as the main reason.
While the Philippines will remain the world’s largest nickel producer in absolute numbers in the years to come, its global share of the market will gradually be reduced as ores are depleted and stringent environmental regulations choke new potential projects.
According to the analysts, the best performing country in terms of nickel output growth in the next four years will be Indonesia, thanks to the easing of the export ban, followed by Canada and Australia.
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