Analysts insist the rally in mining stocks is a blip that won’t last – by Ian McGugan (Globe and Mail – March 24, 2016)

What is happening in the mining sector is not quite man bites dog, but it’s close. As metal prices and mining shares climb steadily higher, many of the industry analysts who can normally be counted upon to take a sunny view of the sector are raining pessimism on the upward moves.

The result is an odd combination of rising commodity prices, surging share values – and dour, skeptical observers. “Is it time to get excited?” Heath Jansen, the widely followed mining analyst at Citigroup, asked in a research note Tuesday. His answer: “Despite the positive short-term momentum, we remain cautious.”

He’s not alone. “This year will be another difficult year for commodities,” Paul Robinson, director of consultancy CRU Group, said earlier this month.

Colin Hamilton, head of commodities research at investment banker Macquarie Group, concurs. “In line with many market commentators, we feel recent price moves have been difficult to justify from a fundamental perspective,” he wrote in a Financial Times column this week.

This is not the way things normally work.

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