A 2016 rally in commodity prices and mining stocks has analysts guardedly optimistic
Recent stock charts are making it tempting to declare a five-year-long bear market for mining finally over.
Since mid-January, mining stocks have rallied, key commodity prices appear to be making their way up from a bottom, a number of financing and acquisition deals have been struck and, for the first time in years, the mood at the recent Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada (PDAC) convention in Toronto was buoyant.
“We’re certainly in a rally,” said Ivan Lo, founder of Equedia.com. “Whether the rally will sustain itself is another question. There does seem to be some excitement in the market. It’s a different type of excitement than we’ve seen in previous years.”
“I think it is possible that the worst is over,” Scotiabank commodities analyst Patricia Mohr said. “It doesn’t mean that prices generally are going to move up in a straight line.”
Mid-January appears to have been the bottom for mining stocks and key commodities like gold and copper. There was a run-up in metals the first week of March.
Mickey Fulp, who writes the Mercenary Geologist newsletter, said it was likely the result of New York-based hedge funds wagering on the market hitting bottom and moving back into commodities.
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