KINSHASA, Nov 11 (Reuters) – The defeat of Democratic Republic of Congo’s most important rebel group has strengthened President Joseph Kabila’s grip on political power, but bringing peace to his vast central African nation remains a remote prospect.
“Thank you, Kabila,” sang thousands of women dressed in white who marched through the centre of the sprawling riverside capital Kinshasa last week, celebrating the army offensive that routed the M23 rebels in Congo’s distant east.
A peace deal to be signed on Monday in Entebbe, Uganda, aims to draw a line under the 20-month rebellion, the most serious conflict in Congo since a major war ended in 2003.
It caps a dramatic turnaround for the 42-year-old president, whose reputation was in tatters just a year ago, accused by the opposition of rigging a 2011 election and humiliated by M23’s capture of Goma, the largest city in eastern Congo.
“It is historic. It’s hard to exaggerate this moment,” said Jason Stearns, project director at the Rift Valley Institute. “This is the first time this Congolese army has defeated a serious armed group militarily … Kabila is riding high.”
The boost to Kabila’s reputation comes amid speculation he may change the constitution to run for a third term in 2016. Last month he announced the formation of a national unity government, pulling apart the fragmented opposition.
Some now hope the defeat of M23 could be a first step toward ending two decades of conflict in eastern Congo fuelled by ethnic tensions and rivalry for control of rich deposits of gold, cassiterite and coltan, in which millions of people died.
Kabila has overhauled the command structure of the notoriously ill-disciplined army since Goma, the capital of North Kivu province, fell to M23 a year ago.
The rebel occupation of the city of 1 million people also shocked Western powers into taking a more active role in Congo, turning the tide of the conflict.
The United Nations deployed a new 3,000-strong Intervention Brigade with a mandate to hunt down armed groups, in a break from normal peacekeeping. Its South African Rooivalk attack helicopters played a role in taking M23’s hilltop strongholds.
Crucially, concerted diplomatic pressure ensured Rwanda – which has repeatedly backed Tutsi-led rebellions in eastern Congo – did not support M23 as government troops advanced, potentially removing a key factor in long-term unrest.
“The M23 defeat could be an opportunity to begin breaking cycles of fighting and instability in the Kivus once and for all,” said Sophia Pickles, campaigner at Global Witness.
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